Sunday, January 1, 2012

U.S. Oil on Pace to End Year up 9%, Iran Supports

Brent crude is set to end the year up nearly 14 percent and at a record high annual average, as political tensions in OPEC member states help negate a global economic slowdown that has dampened oil demand growth.?

London Brent [LCOCV1? Loading...? ? ? () ? ] eased nine cents to $107.92 a barrel by 0433 GMT in the final trading day of 2011, as traders balanced a surprise rise in U.S. crude stockpiles with positive U.S. economic data and Iran's threats to a vital oil trade route.?

Despite Friday's fall, Brent is poised to close the year averaging around $111 a barrel, surpassing the previous annual peak of just below $100 reached in 2008.?

U.S. light, sweet crude [CLCV1? Loading...? ? ? () ? ] rose 19 cents to $99.84 and is on track to record a 9 percent gain for the year.?


The oil market will end 2011 the same way it started, with fears of a major oil supply disruption in the Middle East and North Africa supporting prices.?

Iran's repeated threats this week to halt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has helped keep intact a risk premium on prices that first emerged this year with the Libyan uprising.?

"The Middle East premium from Libya has not yet completely eroded as a result of what is happening in Iran," said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of Barrattsbulletin.com and ex-managing director of Commodity Broking Services.?

"We are seeing the premium rebuild, which is keeping the spread (between U.S. crude and Brent) at around $8-9."?

A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander said on Thursday the United States was not in a position to tell Tehran "what to do in the Strait of Hormuz", state television reported, after the U.S. said it would preserve oil shipments in the Gulf.

His remarks follow threats by Iran's navy chief and first vice president earlier this week that Iran could disrupt oil tankers sailing through the key shipping lane if the West imposes sanctions on its crude exports.????

U.S. economic data on Thursday also helped support prices.?

New U.S. claims for jobless benefits rose last week but the underlying trend pointed to an improving labor market, while regional factory data showed the world's largest economy gaining momentum as the year ended.

"When traders get back to the market, they will be focused on the recovery in the United States. As the number one consumer, that may override the demand destruction we are seeing in India, China and Japan," Barratt said.?

U.S. data and Iran's threats helped offset a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories.?

Crude stocks in the world's largest oil consumer rose 3.9 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, confounding analysts' expectations for a 1.7 million barrel drawdown.

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45810790?__source=RSS*tag*&par=RSS

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